Developers' sales carry note of hope

2019-07-19 21:00

Apr 16, 2009 - The Business Times
Emilyn Yap


(SINGAPORE) A ray of hope dispelled some gloom in the private home market yesterday when new data showed developers selling 1,220 new units in March. This brings the number sold in Q1 2009 to 2,660 - the best quarterly performance since Q3 2007.

But could this be a false dawn? Citing weak economic fundamentals, several industry watchers believe that it is still too early to say if a nascent recovery has begun.

According to Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) figures from developer submissions, private home sales held up in March and dipped just 8 per cent below the 1,332 units sold in February. Both months' showings were markedly better than in January, when buyers took up just 108 units.

In fact, the number of units sold in Q1 2009 has already reached around 60 per cent of that for the whole of 2008.

'Most of the demand in the first three months of the year was from Singaporeans and permanent residents, a significant proportion of whom comprised HDB upgraders,' said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

Indeed, new launches in mass-market to mid-tier projects contributed to the bulk of sales in March. The most popular was Double Bay Residences in Simei - developers UOL Group and Kheng Leong sold 264 units at a median price of $659 psf.

Far East Organization also sold 101 units at its Mi Casa condominium in Choa Chu Kang at a median price of $617 psf, while 90 units at City Developments' The Arte fetched a median price of $874 psf.

There is 'strong demand for lower-range properties in the outer areas that are priced below $1,000 psf,' observed PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail.

The mass-market and mid-tier sectors also dominated recent launches. DTZ senior director of research Chua Chor Hoon noted that 95 per cent of all launches in Q1 09 were outside the prime districts 9, 10 and 11. Developers brought out 832 new units in March, down 22 per cent from the 1,072 in February.

In contrast, activity in the Core Central Region continued to lag behind in March. Reception to The Mercury at Shanghai Road was the strongest, with buyers taking up 62 units at a median price of $1,148 psf.

The retreat of foreigners from the luxury property market could be one reason for the weak performance, said Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak. 'Preliminary figures suggest that the percentage of foreign transactions stood at 16.8 per cent in Q1 2009, settling at levels observed in Q2 2003 when the Sars outbreak badly affected the market.'

On the whole, most observers BT spoke to believe that the property market still faces downside risks - the coming months may see prices stay flat or fall and the number of units sold may decrease.

'Historically, economic recovery precedes property market recovery,' said DTZ's Ms Chua. 'Right now, there is no economic fundamental to support a bottoming of the property market.'

Just on Tuesday, the government cut its 2009 economic growth forecast again to a range of minus 6 to minus 9 per cent.

Already, there are signs of developers lowering prices to push sales. For instance, 6 units in Kovan Residences went for $782-$865 psf in February, achieving a median price of $809 psf. By March, 56 units were sold at a median price of $705 psf, with overall prices ranging from $597-$823 psf.

In fact, price cuts and the relatively affordable costs of smaller units could have spurred demand in the last few months, said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee. CIMB analyst Donald Chua also expects more price adjustments to happen at projects that have not been fully taken up.

In terms of new units that can be sold in the next nine months, few market watchers were confident of seeing the 1,000-a-month mark being crossed often. Some estimate that the transaction volume this year may range from 6,000-8,000 units in total. This would still be an improvement on 2008, when 4,264 units were sold.

Still, it's not smooth sailing. Even some popular projects are taking back units. URA data indicates that buyers returned 20 units at the Caspian and 10 units at the Alexis between February and March.

URA will release more concrete data on home sales on April 24. Among other factors, its real estate statistics for Q1 2009 will take into account options on units sold that subsequently lapsed later.


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2019-07-19 21:00

陶子

小小总结一下最近偶涉及的几个靠近MRT的Mass market projects
double bay 的销售的确不错 一个月多一点时间已经卖了一半 developer已经吃下定心丸 价格可能还会上浮

kovan residences 削价的确奏效 一两个周末下来mid floor就已经卖的七七八八了

mi casa 首战告捷 现在的问题是如何巩固战果 不过个人觉得这样的地点 价格稍贵

caspian 倒是借了mi casa不少光 增加了不少买气

Livia 地点相对输一些 不过房屋内部结构不错 价格也的确够实惠

Quartz 还剩最后三间!Top soon是最大卖点


另外 pasir panjang road 近期会推出一个新的小型project,50户,freehold,价格大概在700psf左右,

有兴趣的筒子可以私下联系~~~


2019-07-19 21:00

瞿滢盛

最近买公寓? 还是小心点
熊市的小反弹而以, 大趋势绝对是向下走. 现在买, 呵呵....

2019-07-19 21:00

赵玉飘

不管是什么样的市场,决定价格的最终还是供求
大走势肯定要向下没错,但最终的局面很有可能是那些位置不理想的或者其他综合环境或者因素并不是特别理想的价格会持续下降。

但是那些受众人青睐的project,价格并不一定下。
好的东西大家肯定是都想要得。

2019-07-19 21:00

瞿滢盛

不见得
股市向下的时候,即使再好得股票都跌得一塌糊涂, 房市也是一样.
决定价格的最终是供求 是不错, 但是事情往往矫枉过正, 也许就是Soros的反射理论吧. 个人的一点理解.

2019-07-19 21:00

司空茗咏

个人感觉:大众化的私人公寓把5房/EA组屋拖下水后,接下来就是自己被组屋拖下水
的时候了,然后stablised一段时间,才走向缓慢上升活缓慢下降。

2019-07-19 21:00

赵玉飘

有道理,不过房子毕竟不同于股票。房子对于很多人来说
还算是必需品的,尤其在新加坡,能买房子的肯定不会租房,要不然也太亏了。

就拿我最近的几次offer来讲,我也没还价太多。新房子,银行的valuation 620k-630k, 我出价630K,seller就是死死不肯卖,结果还是有人买他的asing price.。

新加坡人买房子好像一点都不手软。。

2019-07-19 21:00

莫山

租一套房子一年两万,买房的话如果一年后房价跌了四万,你就净亏至少两万。
至少要等房价稳定一下再买嘛,这市场行情。。。

2019-07-19 21:00

屈宝

租房子一年两万的钱你拿不回来了。
那是必须付出去的钱。可是买房子即便是一年后跌了四万,你仍然有可能盼着它涨回来,反正房子在你手里。跌的时候你不卖就是了。

2019-07-19 21:00

瞿滢盛

这个算法……
如果你等一年买能便宜4万块,那以后“涨回来”你不是白赚4万?

2019-07-19 21:00

屈宝

其实我的意思是说如果你买房子拿来自住,
那就根本没必要算账面上的数字浮动。从长远来看,房子还是保值的。而且,房子对于自住的人来说,家的意义大于一切吧。能够负担得起,又打算定居在这里的,为何还要这样算来算去呢?