你见过外婆么？

During the second world war, experts needed to decide whom to train as RAF fighter pilots. Today this would mean a battery of complex tests. Back then they used two simple questions: 1) Have you ever owned a motorcycle? 2) Do you own one now? The ideal recruits were those who answered 1) Yes and 2) No. They wanted people who had been brave enough to ride a motorbike but were sane enough to abandon the habit.

衡量一个小散的简单问题可能是1）你见过外婆么？2）你最近8年见过外婆么？成功小散应该回答1）见过，2）已经有八年时间（一个经济周期）没见外婆了。见过外婆的人大赚过，也大赔过，知道控制风险以后应该可以找到长期稳定的财富自由之路。