comments:
this is well expected move, as increasing international presure from the world, which is not only G-8, but i personally think, more of the reactions from developing economies, especially Chindia, ASIANs..etc. as the issue gets hotter and hotter to make everybody hurt, OPEC should know the consequences in both long term economic impact and diplomatic relations.
well, as for the 3 factors in the second last paragraph, i have some saying:
"the real reasons for market volatility are"
1. " a shortage of refining capacity": oh, that is bullshit. we know how thrilling the oil and gas activities have been going through these years! unless he meant that (OPEC countries have) a shortage of refining capacity, which causes the throughput of oil? but this is illogical: first, now we talking about crude oil price, not refineries or its output! second, your shortage of refinery does not mean shortage of the world, unless u mean all the oil has to be refined in ur place? then u r simply the root of devil, even though we can understand OPEC wants to extend their supply chain to higher level, like refinery or even more mature oil product, but at this point in time, u gotta relax ur time table a bit!
2. "speculation by traders": yes, it is as true as usual, but this is a forever on-going activity. so blaming it as a top culprit does not sound quite reasoable. nevertheless, i personally do mandate more stringent regulation in hedge funds and derivetive tradings. we know they are bornt to benefit the market mismatchings and risk hedging, but with the greet and pressue, ppl tend to be selfish enough to forget the overall goodness of others. but this is just where the regulation should comes in. remember, ppl pay u tax, govenors!
3. political tensions in the main producing regions: come on! this is another forever on-going issue, so pls dun blame that much! perhaps the only thing u wanna emphasize is that Israel may attack Iran under xxxxxxx conditions. but who wanna believe that! ok, let's assume Israel is reckless, but US allow it? a lot of conerns there. dun think Iran as Iraq!!! even yes, Iraq war will not repeat in any time soon, unless a few more 911 happen in US again and again.
in all, i think that it's likely to stablize the oil price, but would be a reasonable one. a gradual decline to a $100 level would be quite comfortable to most of the countries now. the sub-$80 would be folded in the history book for some while, at least.
2 个回答
我的2 cents
石油价格的疯长是由于：
1。美元的贬值
2。speculation。在这个高inflation的大环境下，commodity看起来是最有利可图的（or 可以保值的）。所以各种资金都pump到commodity了。
尽管他们不停鼓吹石油需求如何增长，怎样供不应求，那都是bullshit！美元不停贬值就是希望全世界为他的subprime买单。
伊朗嚷嚷着说要用非美元结算，可惜没有下文。不然就有好戏看来。